30 Games in 30 Days: #27 Toledo at Ball State

Toledo	@ Ball State

Last year Ball State ran away with the MAC before being tripped up by turnovers in the championship game. The Cards finished nationally ranked, solid on both sides of the ball, and kept one of the top three running backs in the nation. Last year Toledo limped to a 3-9 season, failed on several occasions to close out winnable games and only looked good against Miami (OH) and EMU. The total record of the teams they beat was 8-28 and when these two teams hooked up in Toledo the Rockets did not manage to score one point. Both teams lost their coaches as Brady Hoke was tempted away by San Diego, and Toledo Tom was replaced to help breath life into a Toledo team that used to compete year in and year out.

Where: Muncie, Indiana
When: October 3rd

All Time: Ball State 17-16-1


Last 20 meetings:

Date	Ball State	Toledo
October 4, 2008	31	0
November 13, 2007	41	20
November 14, 2006	20	17
October 15, 2005	14	34
October 2, 2004	14	52
October 25, 2003	38	14
October 12, 2002	17	37
October 20, 2001	24	20
November 11, 2000	3	31
September 18, 1999	10	23
October 10, 1998	6	27
November 8, 1997	35	3
November 16, 1996	24	14
October 7, 1995	14	17
October 8, 1994	24	24
October 9, 1993	31	30
November 7, 1992	9	10
November 9, 1991	9	3
September 22, 1990	16	28
September 23, 1989	22	29

So let me get this straight, you go 12-2 finish nationally ranked, bring back arguably the #1 running back in the nation and you're picked by your conferences own media outlet to finish 5th? The Ball State bulletin board has to be absolutely pasted with media articles about how poorly they are going to do this year, how easy their schedule is, how without Davis and Hoke they are a lost cause, and so on.

The Cardinals have great players, a coach who has years of experience with the team, and a divisional home opener on the heels of a game against a very vulnerable Auburn team. Ball State entering this game with a 3-1 record is probable, 4-0 is realistic. Kelly Page and his OL will have had four weeks of game experience including against an SEC defense to warm up for divisional play.

Tim Beckman is coming back to the MAC five year's spent coaching at BCS level schools (Ohio State, Oklahoma). Like Ball state this game marks the opening of Division play for Tim Beckman so we will all know, and quickly, if the lofty expectations being floated aroud by some publications (e.g. 3rd by Scout, 4th by MAC Media) are realistic.

Toledo is not bereft of talent, on the contrary they have as much individual talent as most MAC teams but those individuals have never put it together in any way that seems to translate into winning seasons. Beckman can change that but not knowing the players in any substantial way is going to impede on his ability to take massive steps forward this year.

Why this game means more to Ball State:

Even though its early in the season there should be a fair share of pressure on Ball State. As the new head coach of a program Parrish does not get the breathing room most new coaches are given. He knows the personnel, recruiting connections, scheme's, and community. Coach Parrish also follows on the heels of a ranked 12-2 campaign on a team that's improved every year for some time. I don't think anyone expects Ball State to improve or repeat over last years edition but most fans think anything short of seven wins is unacceptable.

Their last three games are likely to be their most difficult of the season so if they want a shot at getting to a Bowl Game they need to have at least six wins by week nine.

Away games at Temple and Auburn mean they really only have one more game to spare (yes they may beat Temple and/or Auburn but losing either of them will not be earth shattering). If they lose to Toledo in the MAC opener they could go into mid October at 3-3 with a conference mark of 0-2. As good as they may be they are not good enough to out of that large a hole.

Why Toledo could shock:

While media outlets have the rockets doing some damage this year I think the expectations of fans are far lower. Toledo does not bare the burden of needing this game while fans would be ecstatic with a bowl appearance were Toledo to win five games, perhaps even four paired with one big upset like Temple or Colorado at home or Ball State on the road many would consider 2009 a success.

While Beckman does not know his players, his players all know each other. Toledo returns pretty much everybody so just about every starter will remember the 31 to nothing drubbing Ball state put on them last season. A chance to take it to the Cardinals while they are breaking in a new line and quarterback may be enough to bring out the best in a Toledo team that showed last year it *can* play with teams like Fresno State and CMU.



Its a bit over a three hour drive so with a noon kickoff fans who want to make the trip should get up before the sun, if have to drive more than an hour to get there its a sin not to tailgate for a while once there.


#30: Temple at Navy
#29: Morgan State at Akron
#28: Miami at Kent