MAC Defensive Previews 2009

Western Michigan:

The Bronco's are a team that wins on the strength of their passing game. Their defense does a decent enough job not to lose games but the weakness of their pass defense prevents Western Michigan from surviving anything but a great effort by Hiller and company. one needs only to look at the Texas Bowl where Rice had their way through the air to see just how vulnerable this unit was.

If Western Michigan wants to overtake the chips or, at the very least, win themselves a bowl game they can not give up more than two hundred and fifty yards passing a game.

Category	Actual	Conf	National
Rushing Defense	140.46	3	62
Pass Efficiency Defense	128.82	6	67
Total Defense	395.31	8	87
Scoring Defense	24.92	5	62
Pass Defense	254.85	12	102
Sacks	2	2	T-54
Tackles For Loss	6	3	48

Key Losses:

Zach Davidson (DL)
Louis Delmas (DB)
C.J. Wilson (DB)
E.J. Biggers (DB)

Key Retentions:

Austin Pritchard (LB, Senior)
Justin Braska (LB, Senior)
Cody Cielenski (DL, Senior)
Mario Armstrong (DB, Junior)

The Bronco's had a senior heavy defensive unit last year and there are allot of gaps to fill, losing Davidson is going to put allot of pressure on the front seven but the return of Pritchard, Braska and Cielenski should soften that blow. There will be allot of competition among the very young Linemen for some starting spots (six freshman on the roster last year and only two with substancial playing time) if they are not up to the task this defense will fall off against the run, the one area in which they perform rather well.

If the sophomores on the defensive line dont step it up Western Michigan's defense will probably fall off a bit this year, of the players who appeared in all thirteen games 9 where seniors (the exceptions being Mario Armstrong and Justin Braska) there is a healthy amount of game experience returning at defensive back and linebacker but on the line there are just too many question marks to bet on the Bronco's defense getting measurabally better.

Toledo:

Last Season was a year of moderate improvement for the rockets defense but what little progress was made in terms of yardage was rendered completely meaningless by ranking towards the bottom of the conference in scoring defense. The rockets defense had several very impressive games (Michigan, Miami, CMU, ), more terrible performances (NIU, Akron, Bowling Green), and not a whole lot of in between. Toledo just was unable to get it done against mid to upper tier MAC teams defeating only EMU and Miami.

There is excitement about the coaching change, as much as many will miss something about Toledo Tom most, including Tom himself, believed it was time for him to go. Tim Beckman is bringing a defensive philosophy to Toledo and has nearly the entire defense from 2008 returning.

Category	Actual	Conf	National
Rushing Defense	178.33	9	96
Pass Efficiency Defense	141.45	9	102
Total Defense	381.42	5	77
Scoring Defense	31.42	10	97
Pass Defense	203.08	5	53
Sacks	0.83	13	118
Tackles For Loss	4.33	13	112

Key Losses:
Tyrrell Herbert (DB) Team leader in Interceptions
Albertson Alexandre (DL)

Key Retentions:

Barry Church (DB, Senior)
Lester Richmond (DB, Senior)
Archie Donald (LB, Junior)

Toledo has to present a stronger front defensive line if they are going to improve, second to last in sacks, eighth to last in tackles for loss and ninety sixth nationally against the run all shine a very large spotlight on the weakness of the Rockets defense. Beckman is going to have to get better production from Skylaar Constant, Derrick Summers and Maurice Hill this year if he wants his first season to include more wins than they had last year.

Toledo should get better the line will improve though how much is up in the air. Experience in other areas will pick up the slack and lead to a more consistent Rockets defense. If the defensive line stays the same the improvement will be marginal at best, if the line gets in the quarterbacks face more than once a game they could see improvement in the most damning aspect of their defense, opponents ppg. Any reasonable improvement in PPG will win the rockets at least 4-5 games.

Temple:

Temple has been, for a couple of years, trying to build a team around a defense and they have made some great progress despite falling off a bit last year from their two thousand seven performance. Like NIU they are going against the grain of MAC teams, unlike NIU it has not paid off in a bowl game, yet.

Many media heads are saying that this is the year Temple changes that and if they do it will be on the back of the defensive unit. Between Temple returning eight starters and other defenses like NIU and Bowling Green losing so much of their talent there is every reason to believe that Temple can be the reclaim the mantle of 'best defense in the MAC' this season.

Category	Actual	Conf	National
Rushing Defense	166.33	7	87
Pass Efficiency Defense	120.6	3	50
Total Defense	388	6	81
Scoring Defense	23.08	3	47
Pass Defense	221.67	10	80
Sacks	1.5	8	89
Tackles For Loss	5.17	7	T-83

Key Losses:

Terrance Knighton (DL) First team All MAC
Junior Galette (DL)
Evan Cooper Jr (DB)

Key Retentions:

Elisha Joseph (DL, Junior)
Andre Neblett (DL, Senior)
Adrian Robinson(DL,Sophomore)
Alex Joseph (LB, Senior)
Amara Kamara (LB, Junior)
Elijah Joseph (LB, Junior)
Anthony Ferla (DB, Senior)
Jamal Schulters (DB, Junior)
Jaiquawn Jarrett (DB, Junior)

Temple suffered a couple of unexpected losses due to rules violations; on the defensive line Galette, and in the defensive backfield Daryl Robertson. Were it not for this unfortunate situation there would be next to no questions going into the season for the Owl's defense. With these losses the questions around the defensive line are still only minimal as there was, in place, good depth.

Temple's squad will perform as well, if not better, than the 2008 edition. They will almost certainly be one of the top three units in the MAC and have the inside track at being the best. They need to get better against the pass if they want to take the MAC East division. Poor showings against good quarterbacks throttled them in the Buffalo, Central Michigan, and Kent games if they don't get better in the air their season will again be determined by a hand full of chance plays.

Ohio:

Last year the Bobcats quietly had one of the better defenses, statistically, in the MAC ranking in the top half for total defense among all schools nationwide, and in the top third of MAC defenses in most categories. The only areas of note where they were not among the top four in the conference were in sacks and in scoring defense.

So how do you rank in the top third in terms of yards against the run and the pass and still rank so badly against other defenses when it comes to the scoreboard? Giving away the ball 12 more times than you take it away helps this is only partially the defenses fault as the Ohio offense really had a hard time of it when it came to keeping the ball (17 fumbles and 14 picks) . Bad filed position from a poor punting and coverage game also knee capped the defense.

During the three game skid (Temple, Buffalo, Bowling Green) that broke the Bobcats back late in the season their defense had numerous scoring drives start on their side of the 50 (17 points versus temple, 14 points versus the Falcons) and untimely turnovers deep in enemy territory (3 against Buffalo, 1 against the Falcons).

Category	Actual	Conf	National
Rushing Defense	157.58	4	81
Pass Efficiency Defense	121.77	4	54
Total Defense	348.58	3	54
Scoring Defense	27.25	6	70
Pass Defense	191	4	35
Sacks	1.75	6	76
Tackles For Loss	5.17	7	T-83

Key Losses:

Jameson Hartke (DL) All MAC
Michael Brown (LB)
Chris Hall (LB)
Mark Parson (DB)
Michael Mitchell (DB)

Key Retentions:

Noah Keller (LB, Junior)
Lee Renfro (LB, Senior)
Steven Jackson (DB, Senior)
Thad Turner (DB, Senior)
Kris Luchsinger (DL, Senior)
A.J. Oxley (DL, Junior)

Ohio will have a very strong, but not deep, set of linebackers this year if they can remain healthy they should help compensate for some of the lost production bound to happen on the defensive line. The big question is going to be the defensive backfield, Losing Mitchel and Parson leaves a pretty big gap back there and it will be up to sophomore Travis Carrie to help pick up the slack.

Ohio's defense should remain, statistically, one of the better unit in the MAC weather or not that is going to translate into more wins is strictly up to the offense and special teams. While the Defense can certainly do a better job taking away the ball if they see as many short filed situations in 2009 as they did in 2008 the Bobcats can very easily end up faltering against more determined consistent teams late in the year.

Northern Illinois:

Jerry Kill is building something of an oddity in the Mid American Conference, a team which is lead by its defense. In a conference where most of the teams run on offense, offense, offense, watching a team that works the clock, holds the ball, and stuffs opponents will be a nice change of pace. The fact that the Huskies kept getting better as the year went on is why they beat out other six and six teams for the Independence Bowl at large spot.

Particularly good against the pass ranking fifth nationally in yards allowed and fifth in the conference in efficiency. The huskies also managed to rank top 15 in scoring, top 20 in total defense. In terms of MAC play the Huskies had no weakness outside of their one terrible performance (Ball State) the entire year.

Category	Actual	Conf	National
Rushing Defense	137.38	2	51
Pass Efficiency Defense	122.68	5	56
Total Defense	298.46	1	17
Scoring Defense	18	1	14
Pass Defense	161.08	1	5
Sacks	1.92	4	58
Tackles For Loss	6.54	2	32

Key Losses:

Larry English (DL) League MVP, constant target of double teams
Craig Rusch (DL)
Alex Krutsch (DL)
Josh Allen (LB)
Tom McCarthy (LB)
Chase Carter (DB)
Melvin Rice (DB)

Key Retentions:

Mike Krause (DL, Senior)
Alex Kube (LB, Junior)
Cory Hanson (LB, Senior)
David Bryant (DB, Senior)
Mike Sobol (DB, Junior)


How does a team step up to replace Larry English, who for two years was recognized by the MAC as the best player in the conference? He not only managed to put up eight sacks but he this while facing constant double teams. If losing English was not bad enough the Huskies are losing two more defensive linemen two linebackers and two defensive backs.

The defense is going to drop off how much is going to depend on Kill, did he only get lucky by inheriting the best player in the MAC or is their something to what he will Build. I think NIU will fall to some where between defense number four and seven which for squad losing a first round draft pick *and* six other starters is pretty impressive.


Miami:

Before you start to pile on the Red Hawks defense it's important to realize that there is not single thing that went the teams way last year being a Bulls fan for a decade I can empathize... Now with that out of the way; Wow did Miami ever have an awful running defense last year, it's almost beyond words... Giving up more than two hundred yards on the ground a game is going to lose you six to eight games no matter what else goes your way. Factor in the their inability to stop the pass and I have to hand it to the hawks for pulling out two wins.

If you want to see what a difference the defense can make in Miami's only win over an FCS school (Bowling Green) they held the opposition to 120 yards on the ground and 220 in the air. Not an effort to make you brag about your stout defense but average enough to do the job (Keep the Falcons under 30). Like the offense the defense way underperformed and that usually happens when players start to give up. Bringing in a new coach may cause the Red Hawks to rebound.

Category	Actual	Conf	National
Rushing Defense	208.33	13	106
Pass Efficiency Defense	145.12	12	109
Total Defense	395.5	9	88
Scoring Defense	32.67	12	101
Pass Defense	187.17	28	3
Sacks	1.08	10	108
Tackles For Loss	4.83	10	97

Key Losses:

Joey Hudson (LB) First in tackles
Clayton Mullins (LB) Second in tackles
Caleb Bostic (LB)
Robbie Wilson (DB) Third in tackles, First in interceptions

Key Retentions:

Caleb Bostic (LB, Senior)
Brandon Stephens (DB , Junior)
Ben Bennett (DB, Junior)
Jordan Gafford (DB, Senior)

A Miami defense with Hudson or Mullins (and with a healthy Bostic) and a renewed belief in their coach would easily shoot up into the upper tier of MAC defenses. But Miami has a new coach and a defense stripped of its long time leadership.

I don't know if Miami has anyone who can step up enough to help Bostic carry this team. But I do believe that the players and fans are getting behind coach Haywood. Because of this belief and the units talent he Hawks defense **WILL** be markedly improved, perhaps middle of the pack or better in the MAC.

Kent:

Kent's Defense fell apart last season which contributed to their dismal and inconsistent play as a team. This is two straight years the Kent defense has been moved backwards, Doug Martin has to do something to breath life into his D or he could find himself on the hot seat by mid season.

Last year a slightly more competent defense gets them at least two more wins (Akron and Ohio). Whats surprising is that as a team they were more competitive in 2008 than in 2007 even though their defense was thrashed for nearly four hundred points.

Where they were really bad was against the run, giving up nearly one hundred and eighty yards a game? you're lucky you won four games. They were also horrid at keeping teams out of the end zone, giving up 31 points a game is no way to treat your offense. On the plus side they did manage to break into the middle of the pack in the backfield presence ranking fifth in the conference in TFL and seventh in sacks but once a team got past the line they got way past the line.

Category	Actual	Conf	National
Rushing Defense	178.67	10	97
Pass Efficiency Defense	137.37	8	92
Total Defense	395.17	7	86
Scoring Defense	31.67	11	98
Pass Defense	216.5	9	76
Sacks	1.58	7	84
Tackles For Loss	5.67	5	64

Key Losses:

Derek Burrell (LB) First in tackles, sacks
Rico Murray (DB)
Stevon Moss (LB)
Cedric Maxwell (LB)

Key Retentions:

Brian Lainhart (DB, Junior)
Dan Hartman (DB, Junior)
Danny Sadler (DB, Senior)
Monte Simmons (DL, Junior)
Kevin Hogan (DL, Senior)
Sam First (DL, Senior)
Aaron Hull (DL, Senior)

Kent's linebackers have to step up this year, the defensive line should be solid and continue to put pressure on in the offensive backfield but the tackling and pursuit behind them has to stop teams from ripping off big plays. The task will fall on Cobrani Mixon who has to become the leader of the line backing core.

I would not be surprised to see Kent's defense improve, but I don't expect it will. There is allot of potential on their line and with the defensive backs but if the Linebackers cant stuff up the short passes and long runs 2009 will be a longer season for the Flashes than 2008 was.

Bowling Green:

Bowling Green usually puts forth one of the better defenses in the MAC and 2008 was no exception. Respectable against the run and rock solid against the pass the Falcons were in the top six in every conference category. They also ranked in the top thirty nationally against the pass. If not for an upset loss against EMU and a forth quarter collapse against Buffalo the Falcons would have walked away with the east largely on the back of their defense.

The Falcons gave up more than 30 points only three times; Minnesota in an emotional crash after the Pitt win, Akron in a winning effort, and Buffalo (in 4 overtimes) after a fourth quarter collapse. It would have been really nice to see what the Falcons could have done in a Bowl game but for eight of their starters 2008 was the final shot.

Category	Actual	Conf	National
Rushing Defense	162.58	5	83
Pass Efficiency Defense	113.34	1	29
Total Defense	343.42	2	52
Scoring Defense	23.17	4	49
Pass Defense	180.83	2	21
Sacks	2	2	T-54
Tackles For Loss	5.25	6	78
T=tied at this ranking

Key Losses:

Diyral Briggs (DL) First on team in Tackles for loss and Sacks
Joe Schaefe (DL)
Mike Ream (DL) Junior, dismissed from the team
John Haneline (LB) Third in tackled
Erique Dozier (LB) Fifth in Tackles
Antonio Smith (DB)
Kenny Lewis (DB) Team Leader in Interceptions

Key Retentions:

Jarett Sanderson (LB, Senior)
Jahmal Brown (DB, Senior)
P.J. Mahone (DB, Senior)

Despite the massive Exedous of defensive starters expect the Line Backers and Defensive Backs to play well. The backups last year saw allot of playing time so they will not be as green as one might expect. Losing Mike Ream is going to hurt the defensive line as the unit has no anchors right now.

The defense will drop off a bit this year but there is no reason to expect the end of days when their opponents have the Ball. Brown and Mahone should provide enough of a buffer in the passing game to keep teams living on the long ball and the deep line backing core anchored by Sanderson will be adequate against the run.

Eastern Michigan:

EMU is one of the longer downtrodden teams in the MAC and have fielded the leagues second worst defense last year. They put up respectable number's stopping the pass but when you give up almost two hundred yards a game rushing why would anyone even bother trying to throw? More than a few times EMU's defense was the decisive cause for a loss. In particular the Akron and Temple Cross over games were particularly winnable with the Offense putting up 35 and 52 points respectively.

Right now EMU is where Buffalo lived from 200-2005, hopeless. But they have a new staff coming in and are located in great football recruiting state so long term yes the program can turn it around but don't expect 2009 to be a too much of better year. For the short term its hard to see the Eagles stopping anybody after losing most of the defensive backfield which is not helpful to a unit who's only moment's of success were stopping the pass.

Category	Actual	Conf	National
Rushing Defense	196.33	12	103
Pass Efficiency Defense	156.02	13	116
Total Defense	408.58	12	95
Scoring Defense	35.58	13	109
Pass Defense	212.25	8	65
Passing Efficiency	122.14	9	69
Sacks	1.33	9	100
Tackles For Loss	4.67	12	104

Key Losses:

Daniel Holtzclaw (LB): First in tackles
Lloyd Garrison (DB):
Dwayne Harrison (DB): Fourth in tackles
Jacob Wyatt (DB): Second in tackles

Key Retentions:

Brad Ohrman (DL)
Brandon Downs (DL)
Delano Jackson (DL JuCo Transfer)
Ryan Leonard (DL JuCo Transfer)
Jermaine Jenkins (LB)
Andre Hatchett (LB)
Ryan Downard (DB)
Chris May (DB)

Like the Chips against the Pass Eastern Michigan run defense has nowhere to go but up. If Jackson and Leonard can deliver as the coaching staff expects EMU may be able to win out some of those closer games, that is unless their Defensive backs were protected from air attacks by an atrocious effort stopping the run. Then we might just see teams start airing it out, rather than grinding it out against the Eagles.

Like Akron any improvements in this defense hinge on new blood, they lost too much of what they had and as a program they have not done a good job filling in gaps left by departing talent. Expect a modest improvement in running defense paired with a falling off in the passing game the offset of which will rank EMU near the bottom again but at least they will have some balance.

Central Michigan:

Sometimes its hard to know how good, or how bad, a particular facet of a defense is when the other is horrible. Central had the best rushing defense in the mac last year and were ranked in the top 50 nationally. Their passing defense was so bad its hard to know if teams passed against them because their rushing defense was good or just went in the air because it was so easy. Given all the injuries they had to overcome in 2008 its understandable they performed so badly but still disappointing.

One thing is for sure their passing defense absolutely killed them in the motor city bowl last year. On the whole they were, and have been, in the mid to bottom half of MAC defenses for some time. They have been blessed by an outstanding offense which has compensated for a sub par defense but this but LeFevour graduates after this season so it might behoove their Corners and Safeties to grow up this year.

Category	Actual	Conf	National
Rushing Defense	136.54	1	49
Pass Efficiency Defense	142.93	11	105
Total Defense	423.77	13	104
Scoring Defense	30.23	8	89
Pass Defense	287.23	13	118
Passing Efficiency	147.84	2	18
Sacks	2.69	1	14
Tackles For Loss	5.69	4	61

Key Losses:

Casey Droscha (DL)

Key Retentions... Everybody Else (and 7 for 2010, nice)

Nick Bellore (LB, Junior)
Matt Berning (LB, Junior)
Matt Berning (LB, Junior)
Tim Brazzel (LB, Senior)
Bobby Seay (DB, Junior)
Kirkston Edwards (DB, Senior)
Josh Gordy (DB, Senior)
Vincent Agnew (DB, Junior)
Sean Murnane(DL, Junior)
Frank Zombo (DL, Senior)

The good news for the chips is at worse they will drop two spots nationally passing and if they manage to stay healthy this year they should improve, substantially. The really good news is that only four of their starters this year are seniors so Tim Banks has a year to prepare the majority of his defense for the post LeFevour era.

Expect modest improvement from CMU on defense, they should still be solid against the rush and this will pressure the defensive backs but so long as they defensive backfield does not resemble a battle field trauma unit again this year they should do better than they did last yeat.

Buffalo:

In some ways Buffalo's defense was a disappointment last year, the numbers in 2008 were eerily similar to 2007 on a team that badly needed improvement. Nowhere was this more obvious than in their bowl loss where they gave up over 200 yards on the ground. Despite giving up yardage in huge chunks the Bulls defense ability to take away the ball (Just ask Ball State) kept them in more than one game during the season including the International Bowl where they led into the third quarter.

Category	Actual	Conf	National
Rushing Defense	173	8	92
Pass Efficiency Defense	134.62	7	84
Total Defense	408.21	11	94
Scoring Defense	28.21	7	77
Pass Defense	235.21	11	90
Passing Efficiency	138.93	4	26
Sacks	1	11	112
Tackles For Loss	4.93	9	94

Key Losses:

Mike Thompson (DL) Tied for first in sacks
Andrae Smith (DL) Tied for first in sacks
Ron Hilaire (DL)

Key Retentions:

Justin Winters (LB) First in Tackles
Raphael Akobundu (LB) Fifth in tackles
Tom Drewes (LB)
Scott Pettigrew (LB)
Domonic Cook (DB) First in interceptions
Kendric Hawkins (DB)
Mike Newton (DB)
Davonte Shannon (DB)

Losing so much of their defensive line may be a huge blessing, the players coming in for the past year or two are bigger and faster than UB has had in the past and they might be able to spend some more time in the other teams backfield. There are more than a half dozen viable candidates to take over on the line many of whom are freshman and sophomores.

UB has every tool it needs to improve on defense this year the strength of the team from 2008, their defensive backs, return every starter. The Linebackers who were very young last year have more game experience under their belt and more depth behind them. Expect UB to break into the top half of the MAC defenses, with Willy and much of the OL gone if they fail to improve it could be a long year for Buffalo.

Ball State:

The Cardinals won their games on the arm, and legs, of Nate Davis but they did filed a respectable defense in 2008. Ranked fourth overall in the conference they excelled at stopping plays before they reached the line of scrimmage (23rd nationally). The Card's brings back seven defensive starters but unfortunately they lose both starting corner backs and outside linebackers.

Category	Actual	Conf	National
Rushing Defense	163	6	84
Pass Efficiency Defense	115.77	2	38
Total Defense	368.21	4	69
Scoring Defense	20.5	2	29
Pass Defense	205.21	6	55
Sacks	1.86	5	63
Tackles For Loss	6.64	1	28

Key Losses:

Trey Buice (CB) Sixth in Tackles
Kenny Meeks (OLB) First in sacks
Bryant Haines (OLB) Third in sacks
B.J. Hill (CB) Third in Tackles

Key Retentions:

Robert Eddins (DL, Junior) Second in sacks
Brandon Crwoford (DL, Senior) Fourth in sacks
Sean Backer (DB, Sophomore) First in interceptions

Losing a pair of outside linebackers and a pair of corner backs will really be a challenge for the Cardinals, they are very deep at linebacker but they will have to shuffle around to make up for losing Haines and Hill. Corner back might be a different issue but they do return a solid tandem at safety.

The Cardinals should be a solid defense again but its going to take a great adjustment by the new linebackers to make them as strong a presence in the backfield if that happens the defensive unit may help ease the transition of seven new starters on offense.

Akron:

The Zips know all about defenses deciding games, but for them it was the opponents defense helping the zips to give away a tie or lead four times. One of which cost them the division title and another cost them what would have been a nice win against the Bear Cats.

If four star recruit Chris Henderson makes the grade this will be an improved defense, if not expect more of the same. So if you happen to run a tutoring service in the Akron area and want to watch the Zips put some pressure on the quarterback you may want to offer your help.

2008 Rankings:

Category	Actual	Conf	National
Rushing Defense	187.2	11	100
Pass Efficiency Defense	142.1	10	104
Total Defense	397.6	10	90
Scoring Defense	31.3	9	95
Pass Defense	210.4	7	61
Sacks	0.9	12	115
Tackles For Loss	4.8	11	100

Key Losses (5):

Kevin Grant (LB): Team leader in sacks, tackles, Assist
Miguel Graham (DB): Team leader in interceptions, third in tackles
Doug Williams (LB): Fourth in tackles
Bryan Williams (DB): Fifth in tackles
Brandon Anderson (DB): Tenth in tackles

Key Retentions:

Mike Thomas (LB, Junior): Second on the team in sacks and tackles
Almondo Sewell (DL, Junior): Third in sacks, sixth in tackles
Wayne Cobham (DB, Senior): Eight in Tackles
Jalil Carter (DB, Senior): Ninth in Tackles,
Aaron Williams (LB, Sophomore): Eleventh in tackles
Shawn Lemon (DL, Junior): Twelfth in tackles

--

There is not allot of reason to hold out hope for an improved defensive unit in 2008. Mike Thomas has some pretty big shoes to fill, and there is reason to think he can fill them. but looking at the 2008 bench I don't see any position among the back seven which will actually be an upgrade for 2009. Even if Thomas brings as much game as Grant has done for four years who will step up to fill the role that Thomas did last year?

The Zips were saved big losses on the defensive line but that's the same defensive line that led the one hundred and fifteenth ranked pass rush in college football last year (and most of the sacks came at the hands of Kevin Grant).

This may provide an early chance for Chris Henderson to take a starting role. Rivals puts the zips best recruit as a four star steal but I cant find anything talking about his qualification status except for notes back in February stating that he 'had work to do' and 'would probably be around next year'. If he gets the grades Henderson would have almost no equal in the MAC, it would be safe to say that if the zips had use of that kind of talent last year they may have won the east.

With Henderson look for the Zip's to move up significantly in their conference ranking this year, without him look for them to continue to languish in the bottom half.

MAC West Predictions and thoughts

The MAC west may be top to bottom a better division (a fact of which us east fans were reminded every single week when ESPN bothered to have a mid major blog) but the MAC east is holding the hardware. Last week I briefly ran through the east teams now its time for the west. who is going to try and take back the Conference Championship?

Ball State: Denial ain't just a river in Egypt -- Mark Twain...

I have seen some bold predictions from Ball State fans (10+ wins, conference title, ranked) but if you take off your Cardinal tinted glasses you'll see, to the left, the last view you'll ever get of 2008's main architects.

While Ball state 'the program' can recover from the early exit of Davis and the untimely exit of Hoke it will not happen this year. Ball state will be a balanced, competitive MAC team, will likely be bowl eligible, and might surprise either CMU or WMU during the regular season.

2009 is a catch a breath moment for the football program and I hope the fan's will come out with the same enthusiasm they showed in 2008. It would be a shame to see any die off in fan enthusiasm before Stan Parrish has had a chance to replace some key personnel and get his young team some much needed experience. From what I have heard over on BSUFans they are really high on Kelly Page but even if he is the real deal it will take at least a season for him to live up to his potential.

2009 schedule: (7-5, 5-3)

Sept. 3 North Texas
Sept. 12 New Hampshire
Sept. 19 @ Army
Sept. 26 @ Auburn
Oct. 3 Toledo
Oct. 10 @ Temple
Oct. 17 Bowling Green
Oct. 24 @ Eastern Michigan
Oct. 31 Ohio
Nov. 12 @ Northern Illinois
Nov. 18 Central Michigan
Nov. 24 @ Western Michigan


CMU: Whil that iren is hoot, men sholden smyte. -- Chaucer

Be careful not to take too much cheer in where the Cardinals find themselves, you very well could be there this time next year Chips. The downside of being set at quarterback for so long is that you can easily be taken for a loop when the star moves on.

No point in talking any more about LeFevour everything that can be said that has been said. Ball State threw a wrench in their plans for a three straight conference crowns but dropping one to EMU at the end of the season made the loss to BSU seem somewhat less bitter.

Expect the Chips once again regain their position as the best team in the MAC though they will be sorely tested and pressured by Western Michigan and maybe NIU depending on how they put their defense back together.

2009 schedule: (9-3, 8-0)

Sep-5 @ Arizona
Sep-12 @ Michigan State
Sep-19 Alcorn State
Sep-26 Akron
Oct-3 @ Buffalo
Oct-10 Eastern Michigan
Oct-17 @ Western Michigan
Oct-24 @ Bowling Green
Oct-31 @ Boston College
Nov-11 Toledo
Nov-18 @ Ball State
Nov-27 Northern Illinois

EMU: "the Dude abides" -- Jeffrey Lebowski

Well for 13 years EMU has been a losing team, yet thanks largely to a private booster buying up thousands upon thousands of tickets they are still here.

The Eagles may be the MAC conferences nearly guaranteed win ( well, except the chips ) but as a program financially they do OK (due in no small part to the afore mentioned benefactor). Clearly the fans deserve a change, and change is coming... but it may take a couple of seasons to undo more than a dozen years of misery.

I like Ron English he has the potential make some headway this year but a three or four win season would be a small miracle. I do think the eagles defense will be marginally better but before this team stops losing English is going to have to imbue it with a culture of winning. Making the fans, the community, and the team believe that they can win is going to be difficult.

The Eagles will probably steal a game (Army, Toledo, Kent all seem like games they can compete in) And who knows they might have another CMU game in them but heads up they are not better than anyone on their schedule. I almost hate to say this but EMU needs to bring in a FCS Cream puff once a year, their fans really deserve to have a home win and if they don't get it done in week one this year they wont get it done in Ypsilanti until at least 2010.

2009 schedule: (0-12, 0-8)

Sept. 5 Army
Sept. 12 @ Northwestern
Sept. 19 @ Michigan
Oct. 3 Temple
Oct. 10 @ Central Michigan
Oct. 17 Kent State
Oct. 24 Ball State
Oct. 31 @ Arkansas
Nov. 5 @ Northern Illinois
Nov. 14 Western Michigan
Nov. 20 @ Toledo
Nov. 27 Akron

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Update:

I based my praise of EMU fans off of NCAA numbers, my newbie lesson for the day is that NCAA attendance numbers are worthless... I should have known better thanks to the folks at bronco stampede for setting me straight... Does this look like 18K people? I have changed the EMU section to reflect this reality


Northern Illinois: "I see the bad moon arising." -- Creedence Clearwater Revival

One of the reasons that I am so high on the Huskies is because you can watch a stout defense smother an opponent and play a conservative offensive set, there is some smash mouth football in the MAC. Temple is working the same angle and making some good progress but NIU has gotten there first.

Jerry Kill performed an Amazing turn around last year four more wins, a bowl game, and a top twenty defense. Clearly the Huskies are now a team to watch out for in the MAC. The challenge this year will be replacing so many lost starters.

The defense is clearly going to fall off this year, a team in the MAC can not lose someone like English and replace his on the field production. Losing 6 other starters does not help the cause but they wont be as bad as the Huskies defense was in 2007 and may still manage to be in the upper tier of MAC defenses. This season is Jerry Kills proving point, was last years defense a fluke built on his predecessors recruiting or could NIU, and maybe Temple start to move the MAC in a new direction.

The fall off on Defense should be offset by a slightly improved offense, specifically a more mature Chandler Harnish. They will compete well with, but not be able to overtake, Central or Western Michigan. Another Bowl appearance is possible if enough at large spots open but they will have to beat Ball State in mid November or they will be, at best, fifth in line for a bowl.

2009 schedule: (8-4, 6-2)

Sept. 5 @ Wisconsin
Sept. 12 Western Illinois
Sept. 19 @ Purdue
Sept. 26 Idaho
Oct. 3 Western Michigan
Oct. 17 @ Toledo
Oct. 24 @ Miami University
Oct. 31 Akron
Nov. 5 Eastern Michigan
Nov. 12 Ball State
Nov. 21 @ Ohio
Nov. 27 @ Central Michigan

Toledo: "Houston, We have a problem" -- Captain Jim Lovell (too easy?)

No the quote is not a shot at Toledo's on the field performance which I expect to improve over last year. The problem will be adjusting to a world without Toledo Tom who had been coaching the Rockets as a head or assistant for more than a thirty years!

His resume as a head coach includes Two Bowl Wins (in Four Bowl Appearances) , Two double digit win seasons, Two conference Titles, Four Division Titles, and one Top 25 ranking. Tom Amstutz built a great program at Toledo before the wheels started coming off in 2006. Though he is still a part of the program he will be missed on the sidelines.


In his own words:

“I enjoyed every aspect of being a head coach. I will remember sharing great victories with the players, singing the UT fight song and passing around championship trophies with them. But I also remember encouraging them after tough losses, telling them I still believed in them and was still proud of them.”

Tim Beckman takes over a team who's coach was synonymous with the program I don't envy him that task. He does, however, get 18 starters returning from the last incarnation of the Amstutz Rockets so there is allot of in game experience at his disposal for the 2009 campaign. These are the starters that took Fresno to the wire, beat Michigan, and fought hard against CMU, there is allot of potential for the Rockets. The team should improve if they believe in Beckman. It may not translate into more win's this year but they will be far more competitive and consistent in every game.

2009 schedule: (4-8, 2-6)

Sept. 5 @ Purdue
Sept. 12 Colorado
Sept. 19 Ohio State (in Cleveland)
Sept. 26 @ Florida International
Oct. 3 @ Ball State
Oct. 10 Western Michigan
Oct. 17 Northern Illinois
Oct. 24 Temple
Oct. 31 @ Miami University *
Nov. 11 @ Central Michigan
Nov. 20 Eastern Michigan
Nov. 27 @ Bowling Green

* I know I also picked Miami to win this game: It's just too close to call, the more I look at Toledo the more I like them and I don't see the harm in calling it a draw at this point as Miami and Toledo are (1) in different divisions and (2) not going to compete for their respective division crowns.

Western Michigan: “Keep your face always toward the sunshine - and shadows will fall behind you.” -- Walt Whitman

One could easily be tricked into believing that Central Michigan's full name ended with 'And Western Michigan'. The two find themselves constantly mentioned together usually with the Bronco's sitting second chair. Its unfortunate because WMU has a solid team and a solid program if WMU knocks off the favored Chips for the division it would be only a slight surprise.

Like the team as a whole Tim Hiller often gets overlooked. Last year clearly Hiller was the second best Quarterback in the conference (albeit LeFevours injury played no small part in that) yet he was beaten out by the three year Central Michigan starter for the second team All-MAC honors... Really?

On offense WMU brings back Hiller, most of his line, and Brandon West but lose wide outs Simmons and Julian. The losses are pretty deep on defense so Hiller and the offensive unit is going to be under more pressure than last year but expect them to handle it well. The team will be solid and finish first or second in the conference. October 17th all eyes should be on the Central Michigan game and, if they win it, the next week versus Buffalo could easily be a trap.

2009 Schedule: (10-2, 7-1)

5-Sep @ Michigan
12-Sep @ Indiana
19-Sep Miami (OH)
26-Sep Hofstra
3-Oct @ Northern Illinois
10-Oct @ Toledo
17-Oct Central Michigan
24-Oct Buffalo
31-Oct @ Kent State
7-Nov @ Michigan State
14-Nov @ Eastern Michigan
24-Nov Ball State

MAC Quarterbacks in 2009

Update: I have had several Miami and Ball State fans tell me that perhaps I was too rough on Raudabaugh. So I'm getting my crow recipes ready in case they are right.

Much has been made this off season about the MAC coaching carousel, with more than a third of MAC teams sporting a new coach there was plenty to talk about on the sidelines. I have not yet seen anyone talk about the on the field changes in leadership (or potential leadership) with several Quarterbacks graduating, leaving for the draft and at least one Quarterback controversy brewing in Ohio I thought it might be nice to catch up around the conference:

Akron: (Chris Jacquemain)

The Zips are in a good place at QB; not only do they have a two year starter returning they also have someone who has shown good year over year improvement. Its quite reasonable to assume that if the running game does not fall off too much Jacquemain can hit 3,000 yards and perhaps upwards of 25 touchdowns.

Jacquemain lost his running back (and third favorite receiver) but he does return his two biggest targets.


Ball State: (Kelly Page)

I don't think any quarterback will be missed by their team as much as Ball State is going to miss Nate Davis. Leaving early for the draft was a predictable event after Hoke left but it still cut Card fans to the quick.

The good news for Ball State is that their Running game should be as strong as it was last year (minus the Dual threat Davis possessed) The bad news is that right now the odds on favorite Kelly Page is a Red Shirt Freshman though he is built as a dual threat in the mold of Davis somethings only come with game experience. He will compete against Tanner Justice, a senior who has taken a hand full of snaps in the five or so games he has seen any time in.

Bowling Green: (Tyler Sheehan)

Bowling Green brings back Tyler Sheehan for his final year but they are losing some real weapons on offense. How will he do having lost wideouts Corey Partridge and Marques Parks?

Sheehan has already shown he can get it done; throwing for more than three thousand yard his sophomore season. He did fall off a bit last year and there is no way guess if will improve on the twenty six hundred passing yards he put up. But you can probably count on him for upwards of 20 touchdowns and probably nearly half as many interceptions.

Buffalo: (Zack Maynard)

The only question for the Bulls on offense this year is what will they do without four year starter Drew Willy?

In Zack Maynard not only are the Bulls going to try to replace their leader they are going to have to reshape their offense. Maynard is a dual threat Quarterback and while this may hurt the numbers of Naaman Roosevelt it may take some of the pressure off of James Starks.

Maynard saw too little action last year for any kind of an idea how he will lead but he did show he has wheels and pretty solid arm strength. Turner Gill made his name in an option offense and I would not be surprised if he moved Maynard away from the spread and closer to that philosophy.

Central Michigan: (Dan LeFevour)

Perhaps the envy of all MAC schools right now the Chip's return Dan LeFevour for his final season. He is as likely to throw for three thousand yards as he is to run for more than five hundred. There is not a whole lot more to be said about LeFevour who might be the next Big Name QB to come out of the MAC.


Eastern Michigan: (Andy Schmitt)

Perhaps nobody in the MAC has been as good an athlete in as bad a position as Andy Schmidt. This year things might be looking up for him as a new coach and the potential for a somewhat respectable running game might help take the pressure off of him.

Even with the lack of a running game and as bad as EMU was Schmitt looked good last year. He does not turn the ball over too much, has a decent completion ratio and came on strong towards the end of the year. If he gets any kind of run support Schmitt can be a very dangerous weapon in 2009.

Kent: (Giorgio Morgan (photo) or Anthony Magazu)

Julian Edelman stepped up in a big way last year, while his passing numbers were, at best, pedestrian his rushing numbers were amazing (1,370). Losing him is up there with the losses suffered by Ball State and Buffalo if Eugene Jarvis can not stay healthy there is going to be allot of pressure on whoever wins the starting job.

Whoever wins the job is going to be a better passer than Edelman and Kent returns much of its offensive line so there is room for hope this year. There has been no word on who the 'favorite' to start is but Magazu has allot more game experience than Morgan so the job could be his to lose.

Miami: (Daniel Raudabaugh)

The poor performance of Miami was the surprise of the season last year and while there is no reason to expect this program to stay down very long this next year could be ugly.

Raudabaugh will have allot of familiar faces around him but if he performs as poorly as he did last year Clay Belton might get a crack at the job early in the season, if not win the job outright before 2009's first snap.

If CMU is in the most enviable position Miami is without doubt in the more pitiable position. Raudabaugh had a promising Sophomore year when the RedHawks won the east but the fall off last year may push coach Haywood to look to youth.

NIU: (Chandler Harnish)

When a sophomore takes away the QB job from one of the better quarterbacks in school history opponents and fans alike should keep their eye on him.

While the strength of the Huskies was on defense fifteen hundred yards passing and five hundred rushing are great numbers for a sophomore quarterback who is leading his team for the first time. There is no reason to think That Harnish wont improve and the the Huskies won't give a challenge to CMU and WMU for the MAC West Title. The only area that need significant work is ball ball control, throwing more pics than touchdowns is not going to fly on a team without Larry English.

Ohio: (Boo Jackson or Theo Scott (Picture))

Ohio has the potential for a very healthy quarterback controversy. Last year Boo Jackson benefited from Theo Scott going down. He took his opportunity and ran with it, and ran, and ran, and ran.

Hats off to Frank Solich for giving Scott a show of support by not endorsing either of his returning quarterbacks before camp; A starter should never lose his job due to an injury, Nor should Boo Jackson should not be expected to quietly go back to holding a clip board. Boo Jackson has to have the inside track after his performance last season but Scott did beat him out once, perhaps he can do it again. MAC defenses need to ask themselves, if Boo Jackson is the Second best QB how good is scott?

Temple: (Vaughn Charlton or Chester Stewart)

Temples loss of Adam DiMichele might be the biggest hurdle they have to overcome this year. Vaughn Charlton has been the go to guy when DiMichele went down starting a total of seven games over two years but Coach Al Golden, perhaps taking a note from Turner Gill and Frank Solich has given no indication who is the favorite to start this coming year.

Charlton was red shirted Charlton last year so he could get two years out of him as a starter meanwhile he burned away one of Chester Stewarts so if you have to put money on it expect to see Vaughn Charlton under center this fall.

Toledo: (Aaron Opelt)

Toledo returns almost their entire team, where they in the east they might very well compete for the title. Part of that strength is going to come from Opelt who is efficient, productive, and careful with the ball He won't blow you away but he does ont tend to give games away either.

He has not always had the tools around him to do serious damage but this year he will have an improved target at wide out and more support from the running game. About the only thing that will Keep Opelt from having a banner year would be an injury to either him or one of the other key components on offense.

Western Michigan: (Tim Hiller)

The Bronco's return one of the premier quarterbacks in the conference; Its likely that when the draft comes around next year Tim Hiller will get snatched up in the mid level rounds.

Aside from Ball State and Rice Hiller did not have a bad game last year, he is a solid pocket passer who is physically gifted and football smart. Its a toss up between Him and Dan LeFevour as to whom is the most impressive quarterback in the MAC and on who is more important to their team. They have such different styles a decent comparison is not possible. LaFevour has two MAC titles to his credit so give the nod to him.