Grading the Rankers, Mid-American Media

Today, during the Mid American Conference Football media event at ford field the MAC News Media Association preseason poll was released.

In the East Buffalo received 155 points followed by Temple (144), Akron (128), Ohio (116), BGSU (101), Kent State (51) and Miami (33) according to the MAC media members. In the west Central Michigan was picked to win division, capturing 154 points Western Michigan was close behind with 126 points, followed by Northern Illinois (103), Toledo (71), Ball State (58) and Eastern Michigan (34).

For the championship game Central Michigan lead with (18), followed by Western Michigan (4), Buffalo (2), and Temple (2).

MAC News Media Association

	Correlation	2008 Grade
East	67	56
West	89	79
Overall	78	68

Mac Media barely passes last year, they did relatively poorly in both the East and West divisions. They do line up pretty well with other publications in the West for this coming year but like everyone else they have their own take on the East.

MAC Media (2009)

West	East
Central Michigan	Buffalo
Western Michigan	Temple
Northern Illinois	Akron
Toledo	Ohio
Ball State	Bowling Green
Eastern Michigan	Kent
	Miami

Mac Smack (2009)

West	East
Central Michigan	Temple
Western Michigan	Buffalo
Northern Illinois	Bowling Green
Ball State	Akron
Toledo	Ohio
Eastern Michigan	Miami
	Kent

Add another vote for Buffalo to make an appearance to the Championship game so far 60% of the polls I have seen have Buffalo winning (the other 40%, Including MAC Smack have Temple) . Last years Western Champ, Ball State, does better here than in Van Delay's but 5th place still seems low. The Cardinals are a team that I think can finish as high as Third if Kelly Page comes along and the Offensive line plays even marginally well.

I am surprised at how poorly some publicans are placing the Falcons? While a new coach usually means some growing pains Bowling Green only has new leadership because Greg Brandon was foolish enough to call out students after an already heart breaking loss. Outside of 2006 the Falcons have not had a losing season in more than six years finishing First and Second in the East division the past two seasons. They are a healthy Program with a somewhat favorable schedule finishing lower than third would be a very big surprise (BTW the last time the Falcons were picked this low they finished tied for first in the East and went to a Bowl).

Speaking of Bowling Green the MAC Media Poll had them winning last year, one of the few that did not have Miami Winning in 2008. Though not hurt as badly as some by Miami having Kent at 4th cost them some 2008 points.

MAC Media 2008

West	East
Central Michigan	Bowling Green
Ball State	Miami
Western Michigan	Buffalo
Toledo	Kent
Eastern Michigan	Temple
Northern Illinois	Ohio
	Akron

Mid American Conference 2008

West	East
Ball State	Buffalo
Central Michigan	Bowling Green
Western Michigan	Temple
Northern Illinois	Akron
Toledo	Ohio
Eastern Michigan	Kent
	Miami

So far here are the polls I have seen for their east and their scores:

	Sporting News	The Quad	VanDelay	MAC Media
2008 Grade East	61	40	57	56
2008 Grade West	96	79	92	79
Correlation East	75	83	50	67
Correlation West	89	100	68	89

MAC Media Shook up the Rankings a bit, another vote for Toledo over Ball State moves the Rockets into fourth and the low pick for the Falcons drops them along into 4th.

West	Score	East	Score
CMU	1.20	Buffalo	1.40
WMU	1.80	Temple	2.20
NIU	3.20	Ohio	3.60
Toledo	4.40	BG	3.80
Ball State	4.60	Akron	4.40
EMU	5.80	Miami	6.20
		Kent	6.60

As always if anyone out there knows of a preview for which I can get the 2009 and 2008 data please give me a shout..

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The Criteria for grades is as follows: Correspondence Score:

• Penalty Points: For every spot off a team is between predictions a single point is taken off (Example: SN picked Central to win the West, I picked them second so that's minus one per team, or I picked Temple to win the East and SN pick them to finish third that would be minus two).
• Total Points: The total points is the maximum number of penalty points for a division, for the 6 team west that is 18 points and for the 7 team east that is 24 points.
  
• Score: The penalty points are taken from the total points (18 for the west, 24 for the east) and then a simple percentage is calculated. For the west there were two penalty points (one for CMU and one for WMU) so that's 16 points out of a possible 18 or 88.5%

Mac-Smack Prediction Grade:

• Predict the Conference Champ: 10 points, if your predicted champ finishes second, 5 points.
• Predict the Worst Team in the conference 6 points, if your predicted worst finisher places second to last, 3 points.
• For each team in the west if you predict correctly their place 14 points, if you are one place off 12 points, two places off 9 points, three places off 5 points, four places off 1 point.
  
• For each team in the east correctly predicting correctly will get you 12, one place off 11, two places off 8 three places off 5, four places off 2, five places off 1.